Workshop
“Could it have been different?” Counterfactuals in Minds and Machines
Nina Corvelo Benz · Ricardo Dominguez-Olmedo · Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez · Thorsten Joachims · Amir-Hossein Karimi · Stratis Tsirtsis · Isabel Valera · Sarah A Wu
Meeting Room 301
Sat 29 Jul, noon PDT
Had I left 5 minutes earlier, I would have caught the bus. Had I been driving slower, I would have avoided the accident. Counterfactual thoughts—“what if?” scenarios about outcomes contradicting what actually happened—play a key role in everyday human reasoning and decision-making. In conjunction with rapid advancements in the mathematical study of causality, there has been an increasing interest in the development of machine learning methods that support elements of counterfactual reasoning, i.e., they make predictions about outcomes that "could have been different". Such methods find applications in a wide variety of domains ranging from personalized healthcare and explainability to AI safety and offline reinforcement learning. Although the research at the intersection of causal inference and machine learning is blooming, there has been no venue so far explicitly focusing on methods involving counterfactuals. In this workshop, we aim to fill that space by facilitating interdisciplinary interactions that will shed light onto the three following questions: (i) What insights can causal machine learning take from the latest advances in cognitive science? (ii) In what use cases is each causal modeling framework most appropriate for modeling counterfactuals? (iii) What barriers need to be lifted for the wider adoption of counterfactual-based machine learning applications, like personalized healthcare?
Schedule
Sat 12:00 p.m. - 12:10 p.m.
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Welcome & Introduction
(
Remarks
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
🔗 |
Sat 12:10 p.m. - 12:30 p.m.
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Mihaela van der Schaar - Causal Deep Learning
(
Invited Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
Mihaela van der Schaar 🔗 |
Sat 12:30 p.m. - 12:50 p.m.
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Jonathan Richens - Counterfactual reasoning is necessary for avoiding harm
(
Invited Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
🔗 |
Sat 12:50 p.m. - 1:00 p.m.
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Interventional and Counterfactual Inference with Diffusion Models
(
Contributed Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
Patrick Chao · Patrick Bloebaum · Shiva Kasiviswanathan 🔗 |
Sat 1:00 p.m. - 1:30 p.m.
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Coffee Break
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🔗 |
Sat 1:30 p.m. - 1:50 p.m.
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Himabindu Lakkaraju - Regulating Explainable AI: Technical Challenges and Opportunities
(
Invited Talk
)
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SlidesLive Video |
Hima Lakkaraju 🔗 |
Sat 1:50 p.m. - 2:40 p.m.
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Counterfactual reasoning: From minds to machines to practical applications
(
Panel Discussion
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
🔗 |
Sat 2:40 p.m. - 2:50 p.m.
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Causal Proxy Models for Concept-Based Model Explanations
(
Contributed Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
Zhengxuan Wu · Karel D'Oosterlinck · Atticus Geiger · Amir Zur · Christopher Potts 🔗 |
Sat 2:50 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.
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Counterfactual Explanations for Misclassified Images: How Human and Machine Explanations Differ
(
Contributed Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
Eoin Delaney · Arjun Pakrashi · Derek Greene · Mark Keane 🔗 |
Sat 3:00 p.m. - 4:15 p.m.
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Lunch Break
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🔗 |
Sat 4:15 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.
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Poster Session #1
(
Poster Session
)
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🔗 |
Sat 5:00 p.m. - 5:20 p.m.
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Suchi Saria - TBD
(
Invited Talk
)
>
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🔗 |
Sat 5:20 p.m. - 5:40 p.m.
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Alison Gopnik - Counterfactuals, play and causal inference in young children and machines
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Invited Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
Alison Gopnik 🔗 |
Sat 5:40 p.m. - 5:50 p.m.
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Natural Counterfactuals With Necessary Backtracking
(
Contributed Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
Guangyuan Hao · Jiji Zhang · Hao Wang · Kun Zhang 🔗 |
Sat 5:50 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.
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Counterfactually Comparing Abstaining Classifiers
(
Contributed Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
Yo Joong Choe · Aditya Gangrade · Aaditya Ramdas 🔗 |
Sat 6:00 p.m. - 6:15 p.m.
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Coffee Break
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🔗 |
Sat 6:15 p.m. - 7:00 p.m.
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Poster Session #2
(
Poster Session
)
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🔗 |
Sat 7:10 p.m. - 7:30 p.m.
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Thomas Icard - What's so special about counterfactuals?
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Invited Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
🔗 |
Sat 7:30 p.m. - 7:50 p.m.
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Ruth Byrne - How People Reason about Counterfactual Explanations for Decisions by Artificial Intelligence Systems
(
Invited Talk
)
>
SlidesLive Video |
🔗 |
Sat 7:50 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.
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Closing Remarks
(
Remarks
)
>
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🔗 |
-
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Counterfactual Memorization in Neural Language Models
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Poster
)
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Chiyuan Zhang · Daphne Ippolito · Katherine Lee · Matthew Jagielski · Florian Tramer · Nicholas Carlini 🔗 |
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Semantic Meaningfulness: Evaluating Counterfactual Approaches for Real-World Plausibility and Feasibility
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Poster
)
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Jacqueline Hoellig · Aniek Markus · Jef de Slegte · Prachi Bagave 🔗 |
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In the Eye of the Beholder: Robust Prediction with Causal User Modeling
(
Poster
)
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Amir Feder · Nir Rosenfeld 🔗 |
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Time-uniform confidence bands for the CDF under nonstationarity
(
Poster
)
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Paul Mineiro · Steve Howard 🔗 |
-
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Rethinking Counterfactual Explanations as Local and Regional Counterfactual Policies
(
Poster
)
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Salim I. Amoukou · Nicolas J-B Brunel 🔗 |
-
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Counterfactual Generation with Identifiability Guarantees
(
Poster
)
>
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Hanqi Yan · Lingjing Kong · Lin Gui · Yuejie Chi · Eric Xing · Yulan He · Kun Zhang 🔗 |
-
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Bayesian Predictive Synthetic Control Methods
(
Poster
)
>
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Akira Fukuda · Masahiro Kato · Kenichiro McAlinn · Kosaku Takanashi 🔗 |
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Causal Inference with Synthetic Control Methods by Density Matching under Implicit Endogeneitiy
(
Poster
)
>
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Masahiro Kato · Akari Ohda · Masaaki Imaizumi · Kenichiro McAlinn 🔗 |
-
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Why Don’t We Focus on Episodic Future Reasoning, Not Only Counterfactual?
(
Poster
)
>
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Dongsu Lee · Minhae Kwon 🔗 |
-
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Identification of Nonlinear Latent Hierarchical Causal Models
(
Poster
)
>
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Lingjing Kong · Biwei Huang · Feng Xie · Eric Xing · Yuejie Chi · Kun Zhang 🔗 |
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Counterfactuals for the Future
(
Poster
)
>
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Lucius Bynum · Joshua Loftus · Julia Stoyanovich 🔗 |
-
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Causal Dependence Plots
(
Poster
)
>
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Joshua Loftus · Lucius Bynum · Sakina Hansen 🔗 |
-
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Finding Counterfactually Optimal Action Sequences in Continuous State Spaces
(
Poster
)
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Stratis Tsirtsis · Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez 🔗 |
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Empowering Counterfactual Reasoning for Graph Neural Networks via Inductivity
(
Poster
)
>
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Samidha Verma · Burouj Armgaan · Sourav Medya · Sayan Ranu 🔗 |
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Counterfactual Fairness Without Modularity
(
Poster
)
>
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Lucius Bynum · Joshua Loftus · Julia Stoyanovich 🔗 |
-
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Observational Counterfactual Explanations in Sequential Decision Making
(
Poster
)
>
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Abdirisak Mohamed 🔗 |
-
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Advancing Counterfactual Inference through Quantile Regression
(
Poster
)
>
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Shaoan Xie · Biwei Huang · Bin Gu · Tongliang Liu · Kun Zhang 🔗 |
-
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Closed-loop Reasoning about Counterfactuals to Improve Policy Transparency
(
Poster
)
>
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Michael S Lee · Henny Admoni · Reid Simmons 🔗 |
-
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Delphic Offline Reinforcement Learning under Nonidentifiable Hidden Confounding
(
Poster
)
>
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Alizée Pace · Hugo Yèche · Bernhard Schölkopf · Gunnar Ratsch · Guy Tennenholtz 🔗 |
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Adaptive Principal Component Regression with Applications to Panel Data
(
Poster
)
>
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Anish Agarwal · Keegan Harris · Justin Whitehouse · Steven Wu 🔗 |
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Strategyproof Decision-Making in Panel Data Settings and Beyond
(
Poster
)
>
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Keegan Harris · Anish Agarwal · Chara Podimata · Steven Wu 🔗 |
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Counterfactuals for Subjective Wellbeing Panel Data: Integrated Application of Statistical Ensemble and Machine Learning Methods
(
Poster
)
>
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Jerry Chen · Li Wan 🔗 |
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Learning Linear Causal Representations from Interventions under General Nonlinear Mixing
(
Poster
)
>
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Simon Buchholz · Goutham Rajendran · Elan Rosenfeld · Bryon Aragam · Bernhard Schölkopf · Pradeep Ravikumar 🔗 |
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Counterfactual Explanation Policies in RL
(
Poster
)
>
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Shripad Deshmukh · Srivatsan R · Supriti Vijay · Jayakumar Subramanian · Chirag Agarwal 🔗 |
-
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Leveraging Contextual Counterfactuals Toward Belief Calibration
(
Poster
)
>
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Richard Zhang · Mike Lee · Sherol Chen 🔗 |
-
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Extending counterfactual reasoning models to capture unconstrained social explanations
(
Poster
)
>
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Stephanie Droop · Neil Bramley 🔗 |
-
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Budgeting Counterfactual for Offline RL
(
Poster
)
>
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Yao Liu · Pratik Chaudhari · Rasool Fakoor 🔗 |
-
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Counterfactual Learning to Rank via Knowledge Distillation
(
Poster
)
>
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Ehsan Ebrahimzadeh · Alex Cozzi · Abraham Bagherjeiran 🔗 |
-
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Unveiling the Betrayal of Counterfactual Explanations within Recommender Systems
(
Poster
)
>
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Ziheng Chen · Jin Huang · Ping Chang Lee · Fabrizio Silvestri · Hongshik Ahn · Jia Wang · Yongfeng Zhang · Gabriele Tolomei 🔗 |
-
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Forward-INF : Efficient Data Influence Estimation with Duality-based Counterfactual Analysis
(
Poster
)
>
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Myeongseob Ko · Feiyang Kang · Weiyan Shi · Ming Jin · Zhou Yu · Ruoxi Jia 🔗 |
-
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Inverse Transition Learning for Characterizing Near-Optimal Dynamics in Offline Reinforcement Learning
(
Poster
)
>
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Leo Benac · Sonali Parbhoo · Finale Doshi-Velez 🔗 |
-
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Leveraging Factored Action Spaces for Off-Policy Evaluation
(
Poster
)
>
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Aaman Rebello · Shengpu Tang · Jenna Wiens · Sonali Parbhoo 🔗 |
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Neuro-Symbolic Models of Human Moral Judgment: LLMs as Automatic Feature Extractors
(
Poster
)
>
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joseph kwon · Sydney Levine · Josh Tenenbaum 🔗 |
-
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Navigating Explanatory Multiverse Through Counterfactual Path Geometry
(
Poster
)
>
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Edward Small · Yueqing Xuan · Kacper Sokol 🔗 |
-
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Causal Proxy Models for Concept-Based Model Explanations
(
Poster
)
>
|
Zhengxuan Wu · Karel D'Oosterlinck · Atticus Geiger · Amir Zur · Christopher Potts 🔗 |
-
|
Interventional and Counterfactual Inference with Diffusion Models
(
Poster
)
>
|
Patrick Chao · Patrick Bloebaum · Shiva Kasiviswanathan 🔗 |
-
|
Counterfactual Explanations for Misclassified Images: How Human and Machine Explanations Differ
(
Poster
)
>
|
Eoin Delaney · Arjun Pakrashi · Derek Greene · Mark Keane 🔗 |
-
|
Natural Counterfactuals With Necessary Backtracking
(
Poster
)
>
|
Guangyuan Hao · Jiji Zhang · Hao Wang · Kun Zhang 🔗 |
-
|
Counterfactually Comparing Abstaining Classifiers
(
Poster
)
>
|
Yo Joong Choe · Aditya Gangrade · Aaditya Ramdas 🔗 |