Skip to yearly menu bar Skip to main content


Spotlight Poster

Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets

Chen Xu · Hanyang Jiang · Yao Xie

Hall C 4-9 #1707
[ ] [ Project Page ] [ Paper PDF ]
[ Slides [ Poster
Thu 25 Jul 4:30 a.m. PDT — 6 a.m. PDT

Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building prediction intervals for univariate responses. In this work, we develop a sequential CP method called $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ that builds prediction $\textit{regions}$ for a multivariate response, especially in the context of multivariate time series, which are not exchangeable. Theoretically, we estimate $\textit{finite-sample}$ high-probability bounds on the conditional coverage gap. Empirically, we demonstrate that $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ maintains valid coverage on a wide range of multivariate time series while producing smaller prediction regions than CP and non-CP baselines.

Chat is not available.