Skip to yearly menu bar Skip to main content


Poster
in
Workshop: Machine Learning for Earth System Modeling: Accelerating Pathways to Impact

Graph Neural Networks and Spatial Information Learning for Post-Processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Moritz Feik · Sebastian Lerch · Jan Stuehmer

[ ]
 
presentation: Machine Learning for Earth System Modeling: Accelerating Pathways to Impact
Fri 26 Jul midnight PDT — 8 a.m. PDT

Abstract:

Ensemble forecasts from numerical weather prediction models show systematic errors that require correction via post-processing. While there has been substantial progress in flexible neural network-based post-processing methods over the past years, most station-based approaches still treat every input data point separately which limits the capabilities for leveraging spatial structures in the forecast errors. In order to improve information sharing across locations, we propose a graph neural network architecture for ensemble post-processing, which represents the station locations as nodes on a graph and utilizes an attention mechanism to identify relevant predictive information from neighboring locations. In a case study on 2-m temperature forecasts over Europe, the graph neural network model shows substantial improvements over a state-of-the-art neural network-based post-processing method.

Chat is not available.