Skip to yearly menu bar Skip to main content


Poster

Dynamic Survival Analysis with Controlled Latent States

Linus Bleistein · Van NGUYEN · Adeline Fermanian · Agathe Guilloux

Hall C 4-9 #217
[ ] [ Project Page ] [ Paper PDF ]
Thu 25 Jul 4:30 a.m. PDT — 6 a.m. PDT

Abstract:

We consider the task of learning individual-specific intensities of counting processes from a set of static variables and irregularly sampled time series. We introduce a novel modelization approach in which the intensity is the solution to a controlled differential equation. We first design a neural estimator by building on neural controlled differential equations. In a second time, we show that our model can be linearized in the signature space under sufficient regularity conditions, yielding a signature-based estimator which we call CoxSig. We provide theoretical learning guarantees for both estimators, before showcasing the performance of our models on a vast array of simulated and real-world datasets from finance, predictive maintenance and food supply chain management.

Chat is not available.