Conformal Prediction Sets for Graph Neural Networks

Despite the widespread use of graph neural networks (GNNs) we lack methods to reliably quantify their uncertainty. We propose a conformal procedure to equip GNNs with prediction sets that come with distribution-free guarantees -- the output set contains the true label with arbitrarily high probability. Our post-processing procedure can wrap around any (pretrained) GNN, and unlike existing methods, results in meaningful sets even when the model provides only the top class. The key idea is to diffuse the node-wise conformity scores to incorporate neighborhood information. By leveraging the network homophily we construct sets with comparable or better efficiency (average size) and significantly improved singleton hit ratio (correct sets of size one). In addition to an extensive empirical evaluation, we investigate the theoretical conditions under which smoothing provably improves efficiency.