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Poster
in
Workshop: Neural Conversational AI Workshop - What’s left to TEACH (Trustworthy, Enhanced, Adaptable, Capable and Human-centric) chatbots?

Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering

Charles Lu · Bhawesh Kumar · Gauri Gupta · Anil Palepu · David Bellamy · Ramesh Raskar · Andrew Beam


Abstract:

As large language models continue to be developed at scale, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy, an observation that can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

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