Decoding Answers Before Chain-of-Thought: Evidence from Pre-CoT Probes and Activation Steering

As chain-of-thought (CoT) has become central to scaling reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), it has also emerged as a promising tool for interpretability, suggesting the opportunity to understand model decisions through verbalized reasoning. However, the utility of CoT toward interpretability depends upon its faithfulness---whether the model's stated reasoning reflects the underlying decision process. We provide mechanistic evidence that instruction-tuned models often determine their answer before generating CoT. Training linear probes on residual stream activations at the last token before CoT, we can predict the model's final answer with $>$0.9 AUC on most tasks. We find that these directions are not only predictive, but also causal: steering activations along the probe direction flips model answers in over 50\% of cases, significantly exceeding orthogonal baselines. When steering induces incorrect answers, we observe two distinct failure modes: non-entailment (stating correct premises but drawing unsupported conclusions) and confabulation (fabricating false premises). While post-hoc reasoning may be instrumentally useful when the model has a correct pre-CoT belief, these failure modes suggest it can result in undesirable behaviors when reasoning from a false belief.