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Workshop
Sat Jul 24 07:20 AM -- 08:50 PM (PDT)
Workshop on Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification
Anastasios Angelopoulos · Stephen Bates · Yixuan Li · Aaditya Ramdas · Ryan Tibshirani





Workshop Home Page

Visit https://sites.google.com/berkeley.edu/dfuq21/ for details!

While improving prediction accuracy has been the focus of machine learning in recent years, this alone does not suffice for reliable decision-making. Deploying learning systems in consequential settings also requires calibrating and communicating the uncertainty of predictions. A recent line of work we call distribution-free predictive inference (i.e., conformal prediction and related methods) has developed a set of methods that give finite-sample statistical guarantees for any (possibly incorrectly specified) predictive model and any (unknown) underlying distribution of the data, ensuring reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) for many prediction tasks. This line of work represents a promising new approach to UQ with complex prediction systems but is relatively unknown in the applied machine learning community. Moreover, much remains to be done integrating distribution-free methods with existing approaches to UQ via calibration (e.g. with temperature scaling) -- little work has been done to bridge these two worlds. To facilitate the emerging topics on distribution-free methods, the proposed workshop has two goals. First, to bring together researchers in distribution-free methods with researchers specializing in calibration techniques to catalyze work at this interface. Second, to introduce distribution-free methods to a wider ML audience. Given the important recent emphasis on the reliable real-world performance of ML models, we believe a large fraction of ICML attendees will find this workshop highly relevant.

Introduction to Conformal Prediction (Introduction)
Talk by Rina Barber (Live Talk)
Panel with Michael I. Jordan, Vladimir Vovk, and Larry Wasserman, moderated by Aaditya Ramdas (Discussion Panel)
Few-Shot Conformal Prediction with Auxiliary Tasks (Spotlight #1) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Online Multivalid Learning: Means, Moments, and Prediction Intervals (Spotlight #2) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Nested Conformal Prediction Sets for Classification with Applications to Probation Data (Spotlight #3) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning: an introduction to concepts and methods (Spotlight #4) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Bayes-optimal prediction with frequentist coverage control (Spotlight #5) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Water Break with Gather (Gather)
Talk by Leying Guan (Live Talk)
Poster Session #1 (Poster Session)
Break
Welcome back (Live introduction by moderator)
Empirical Frequentist Coverage of Deep Learning Uncertainty Quantification Procedures (Spotlight #6) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Top-label calibration (Spotlight #7) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Understanding the Under-Coverage Bias in Uncertainty Estimation (Spotlight #8) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
A Conformal Approach for Functional Prediction Bands (Spotlight #9) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Multi Split Conformal Prediction (Spotlight #10) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Talk by Jing Lei (Live Talk)
Robust Validation: Confident Predictions Even When Distributions Shift (Spotlight #11) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
MAPIE: Model Agnostic Prediction Interval Estimator (Spotlight #12) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Exact Optimization of Conformal Predictors via Incremental and Decremental Learning (Spotlight #13) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
LOOD: Localization-based Uncertainty Estimation for Medical Imaging (Spotlight #14) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Calibrating Predictions to Decisions: A Novel Approach to Multi-Class Calibration (Spotlight #15) (Pre-Recorded Talk)
Water Break with Gather (Gather)
Talk by Kilian Weinberger (Introduction by moderator)
Poster Session #2 (Poster Session)
Talk by Emmanuel Candes (Pre-Recorded Talk)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Probabilistic Forecasting: A Level Set Approach (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Testing for Outliers with Conformal p-values (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Sequential Regression Using Metamodels (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Deep Quantile Aggregation (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- An Automatic Finite Sample Robustness Metric (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Weakly Conformalized Predictive Sets with Partial Supervision (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Distribution-free Conditional Median Inference (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Training Models For Uncertainty Quantification (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Interval Deep Learning (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Estimation and Inference on Nonlinear Heterogeneous Effects (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Improving Conditional Coverage via Orthogonal Quantile Regression (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Cross-validation Confidence Intervals For Test Error (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Top Label Calibration (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Nested Conformal (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- PAC Prediction Sets Under Covariate Shift (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Finite-sample Efficient Conformal Prediction (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Copula-based Conformal Prediction for Multi Target Regression (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Using Conformalized Prediction of Performance to Make Learning more Transparent (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Bayesian Crowd Counting (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Learning Prediction Intervals for Model Performance (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Conformal Histogram Regression (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- An Approximate Parallel Tempering for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Robust validation: Confident predictions even when distributions shift (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Prediction Intervals for Active Learning (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Conformal Prediction with Localized Decorrelation (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Right Decisions from Wrong Predictions (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Distribution-free inference for regression discrete, continuous, and in between (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Locally Valid and Discriminative Confidence Intervals for Deep Learning Models (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Root-finding Approaches for Computing Conformal Prediction Sets (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Calibrating Predictions to Decisions (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Distribution Free UQ for Classification Under Label Shift (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Conformal Anomaly Detection on Spatio-Temporal Observations with Missing Data (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Uncertainty Quantification ForAmniotic Fluid Segmentation And Volume Prediction (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Online Multivalid Learning (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- T-SCI: A Two-Stage Conformal Inference Algorithm with Guaranteed Coverage for Cox-MLP (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Understanding The Under-Coverage Bias in Uncertainty Estimation (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Consistent Accelerated Inference via Confident Adaptive Transformers (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Few Shot Conformal Prediction with Auxiliary Tasks (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Efficient Conformal Prediction via Cascaded Inference with Expanded Admission (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- NUQ: Nonparametric Uncertainty Quantification for Deterministic Neural Networks (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Distribution-Independent Confidence Intervals for the Eigendecomposition of Covariance Matrices via the Eigenvalue-Eigenvector Identity (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- How Nonconformity Functions and Difficulty of Datasets Impact the Efficiency of Conformal Classifiers (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- MD-split+: Practical Local Conformal Inference in High Dimensions (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Conformal Prediction for Simulation Models (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Bayesian Triplet Loss (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- CD Split and HPD Split (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 2 -- Reliable Decisions With Threshold Calibration (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Conformal Uncertainty Sets for Robust Optimization (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Learning Quantile Function without Quantile Crossing for Distribution-free Time Series Forecasting (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Distribution Free Uncertainty for the Minimum Norm Solution of Over-parameterized Linear Regression (poster presentation)
DFUQ poster 1 -- Conformalized Survival Analysis (poster presentation)