Optimal Design for Multinomial Logit Model with Applications to Best Assortment Identification
Abstract
Lay Summary
When an online store or advertising platform shows a small set of options, it often observes only one response: which item the user chose, or that they chose nothing. Learning from this feedback is hard because the system must decide which groups of items to show, and the number of possible groups grows explosively with the catalog size. We study how to plan such experiments under a common choice model, where each item has features and users tend to choose items whose features match their preferences. Our method chooses groups of items that are especially informative, rather than trying groups one by one. To make this practical, we provide two computation strategies: one uses standard optimization software and gives a certificate of accuracy, while the other is faster and suited to very large catalogs. We then use this design to identify the best revenue-generating assortment while collecting as few user interactions as possible. Our analysis shows that the required number of samples depends mainly on the number of item features and on how hard it is to distinguish the best assortment from close competitors. This can help recommendation, advertising, and retail systems learn better assortments more efficiently.