Beyond Prediction: Tail-Aware Scheduling for LLM Inference

LLM serving exhibits extreme length variability, making size-based scheduling difficult in practice. Recent LLM schedulers approximate SJF/SRPT using predicted decode lengths or rank and primarily report mean-centric metrics (e.g., TTFT/TBT). We show these prediction-driven policies can be fragile under distribution shifts, bursty arrivals, and GPU memory pressure, and still offer limited control over tail latency (P90–P99) that dominates user experience—even with perfect decode-length knowledge. We introduce a distribution-aware, prediction-free scheduling framework that replaces explicit length prediction with soft, $\gamma$-parameterized priority boosting driven by lightweight statistical signals. Our design co-optimizes scheduling with cache-aware preemption to account for memory-coupled decode dynamics that vary across workload mixes. Evaluated on Azure production traces, our method achieves a P99 TTLT up to 35--50\% lower than SRPT with perfect length prediction and a TTFT 34--47\% lower across various workloads, including reasoning-heavy and chat-heavy tasks, demonstrating a robust alternative for tail-latency optimization in online LLM serving.