Generalized Boundary FDR Control under Arbitrary Dependence: An Approach on Closure Principle
Abstract
Lay Summary
Imagine a scientist testing hundreds of potential new drugs at once. Standard statistical tools can tell them how many total mistakes they likely made, but they cannot guarantee whether the very weakest drug on their list is actually effective. That borderline discovery might be just a fluke, yet it is often the most interesting one for further research. We face this same problem with many types of data-driven discoveries. To solve this, we introduce a new method called Domino, which ensures that even the borderline discoveries are likely to be true. Unlike previous methods that fail when data points are related in complex ways, Domino works no matter how tangled the relationships are. Our framework gives researchers confidence that even their most marginal discoveries are likely true. This matters because in fields like medicine or genetics, chasing a false lead wastes time and resources. With Domino, scientists can now build a set of findings where every single discovery, down to the last one, meets a high standard of trust.