Cognitive Fatigue in Autoregressive Transformers: Formalization and Measurement

Autoregressive language models frequently degrade during long-horizon generation, producing repetitive text, losing instruction adherence, and exhibiting unstable entropy. Despite the prevalence of these failures, practitioners lack online diagnostics to detect them in real time as they occur. We formalize this degradation as cognitive fatigue, a measurable generation-time state characterized by decay in attention to the original prompt, representational drift, and entropy miscalibration. We introduce the Fatigue Index (FI), a lightweight, model-agnostic diagnostic that aggregates these three signals under explicit axioms (monotonicity, boundedness, interpretability), enabling reliable runtime monitoring. Across nine models (1B–13B parameters), FI trajectories exhibit structured temporal dynamics, predict task degradation (AUROC = 0.95) and repetition (ρ = 0.94), and reveal non-monotonic scaling behavior: instruction-tuned models below 3B exhibit faster collapse than base models, with this trend reversing at 7B. Stress analyses further show that FI onset accelerates under longer contexts, middle-positioned evidence, and reduced numerical precision. These results establish cognitive fatigue as a coherent and measurable phenomenon, and position FI as a principled tool for runtime reliability monitoring in production LLM systems.