A Task-centric Theory for Iterative Self-Improvement with Easy-to-Hard Curricula

Iterative self-improvement fine-tunes an autoregressive large language model (LLM) on reward-verified outputs generated by the LLM itself. In contrast to the empirical success of self-improvement, the theoretical foundation of this generative, iterative procedure in a practical, finite-sample setting remains limited. We make progress toward this goal by modeling each round of self-improvement as maximum-likelihood fine-tuning on a reward-filtered distribution and deriving finite-sample guarantees for the expected reward. Our analysis reveals an explicit feedback loop where better models accept more data per iteration, supporting sustained self-improvement while explaining eventual saturation of such improvement. Adopting a task-centric view by considering reasoning tasks with multiple difficulty levels, we further prove quantifiable conditions on model initialization, task difficulty, and sample budget where easy-to-hard curricula provably achieve better guarantees than training on fixed mixtures of tasks. Our analyses are validated via Monte-Carlo simulations and controlled experiments on graph-based reasoning tasks.