Language Generation with Replay: A Learning-Theoretic View of Model Collapse

As scaling laws push the training of frontier large language models (LLMs) toward ever larger data requirements, training pipelines are approaching a regime where much of the publicly available online text may be consumed. At the same time, widespread LLM usage increases the volume of machine-generated content on the web; together, these trends raise the likelihood of generated content re-entering future training corpora, increasing the associated risk of model collapse. In practice, model developers address this concern through data cleaning, watermarking, synthetic-data policies, or by simply ignoring the issue. However, the problem of model collapse in generative models has not been examined from a learning-theoretic perspective: we study it through the theoretical lens of the language generation in the limit framework, introducing a replay adversary that augments the example stream with the generator's own past outputs. Our main contribution is a fine-grained learning-theoretic characterization of when replay fundamentally limits generation: while replay is benign for the strongest notion of uniform generation, it provably creates separations for the weaker notions of non-uniform generation and generation in the limit. Interestingly, our positive results mirror heuristics widely used in practice, such as data cleaning, watermarking, and output filtering, while our separations show when these ideas can fail.