Stability-Aware Feature Design for Robust Watermark Detection in Machine-Generated Text

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) has intensified the demand for principled methods to distinguish human- from machine-generated text. Watermarking provides a promising avenue, yet existing detectors exhibit sharp performance deterioration under multiple paraphrasing and when applied to shorter texts. We introduce Pattern Stability Score (PSS), a novel detection framework that leverages local statistical features and stability dynamics across paraphrased variants. Specifically, the proposed method combines global and local z-score features with higher-order statistics of run-length patterns, enriched by autocorrelation signals and stability scores computed over paraphrase depth. Numerical evaluations are performed on three benchmark datasets (PG-19, CNN/DailyMail, and WikiText) using multiple LLMs (Llama-3-8B, Qwen2-7B) and paraphrasers (Mistral-7B, Qwen2-7B, Gemma-7B), systematically stress-testing robustness under up to eight rounds of paraphrasing. Compared to prior z-score thresholding baselines and some state-of-the-art deep learning methods, our approach improves detection AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) by over 10-15 percentage points across different token lengths. Additionally, extensive cross-domain experiments demonstrate that a single universal classifier generalizes across different LLMs, paraphrasers, and text domains without retraining, maintaining above 83.7\% AUC even when all components differ from training.