Leveraging Class Similarity for Enhanced Conformal Prediction

Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework for reliable classification, which generates a prediction set, guaranteed to include the true label with a pre-specified probability. The performance of CP methods is typically assessed by their average prediction set size. In setups where the classes can be partitioned into semantic groups, e.g., based on shared downstream actions or more interpretable coarse labels, users can benefit from prediction sets that are not only small but also contain a limited number of groups. This paper begins by addressing this problem and ultimately offers a widely applicable tool for boosting any CP method on any dataset. First, given a class partition, we propose augmenting the CP score function with a term that penalizes predictions with "out-of-group" errors. We theoretically analyze this strategy and prove its advantages for group-related metrics. Surprisingly, we show mathematically that, for common class partitions, it can also reduce the average set size of any CP score function. Our analysis reveals the class similarity factors behind this improvement and motivates us to propose a model-specific variant, which does not require any human semantic partition and can further reduce the prediction set size. Finally, we present an extensive empirical study, encompassing prominent CP methods, multiple models, and several datasets, which demonstrates that our class-similarity-based approach consistently enhances CP methods.