Machine-checked refutation of a convergence theorem in dopamine-dependent credit assignment with Kairos
Aidan Yang
Abstract
When an animal receives a reward, the brain must determine which past actions caused it, a problem known as credit assignment. Neuroscience models this process using reinforcement-learning (RL) algorithms whose convergence proofs are cited from the mathematics literature but rarely re-checked in the form they are used. We show that a widely-cited convergence theorem for actor-critic learning is false in its commonly-retold form: a missing boundedness assumption allows the learning process to diverge. The corrected statement machine-checks in Lean 4: 12 theorems close with zero sorry, 2 close modulo explicitly documented stochastic-approximation axioms proved in a companion library, and 3 are intentional counterexamples demonstrating the refutation. We built Kairos, a multi-agent system that verifies scientific claims against a formal proof, randomized tests, and a neural simulation calibrated on published data. Applied to dopamine-dependent credit assignment, Kairos fits experimental behavioral data to $4.4\%$ error ($n = 55$ actions), collapses a reported slow-versus-fast learner dichotomy into a single continuous population ($n = 14$), and predicts in closed form a testable shift in credit-window timing for genetically modified mice. The approach generalizes to any scientific claim that inherits a formal guarantee from a cited theorem.
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