Sequential Correlations Change In-Context Learning: Effective Context Length and Architectural Mismatch

Modern sequence models have a striking capacity for in-context learning (ICL); they can perform new tasks based only on examples given in the prompt. Understanding how this ability emerges requires theory that capture important properties of natural data. Linear regression has served as a useful sandbox for ICL theory, but existing work has largely focused on prompts with independent examples. In this work, we extend this setting to sequentially correlated data, a basic feature of real sequences, present a solvable model based on linear attention, and test our predictions on realistic transformer architectures. We identify two distinct effects: First, when the query token is independent of the context, within-context correlations induce an effective context length: correlated prompts behave like shorter i.i.d. prompts. Second, when the query is also correlated with its context, test error is reduced, particularly for softmax attention when compared to linear attention. These results suggest that correlated prompts alter not only the effective sample size of in-context learning, but also which attention architectures are best matched to the task.