Oral
Replica Conditional Sequential Monte Carlo
Alex Shestopaloff · Arnaud Doucet
Abstract:
We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to perform state
inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. Current state-of-the-art
methods to address this problem rely on particle MCMC techniques and
its variants, such as the iterated conditional Sequential Monte Carlo
(cSMC) scheme, which uses a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) type proposal
within MCMC. A deficiency of standard SMC proposals is that they only
use observations up to time $t$ to propose states at time $t$ when
an entire observation sequence is available. More sophisticated SMC
based on lookahead techniques could be used but they can be difficult
to put in practice. We propose here replica cSMC where we build SMC
proposals for one replica using information from the entire observation
sequence by conditioning on the states of the other replicas. This
approach is easily parallelizable and we demonstrate its excellent
empirical performance when compared to the standard iterated cSMC
scheme at fixed computational complexity.
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