We introduce a kernel approximation strategy that enables computation of the Gaussian process log marginal likelihood and all hyperparameter derivatives in O(p) time. Our GRIEF kernel consists of p eigenfunctions found using a Nyström approximation from a dense Cartesian product grid of inducing points. By exploiting algebraic properties of Kronecker and Khatri-Rao tensor products, computational complexity of the training procedure can be practically independent of the number of inducing points. This allows us to use arbitrarily many inducing points to achieve a globally accurate kernel approximation, even in high-dimensional problems. The fast likelihood evaluation enables type-I or II Bayesian inference on large-scale datasets. We benchmark our algorithms on real-world problems with up to two-million training points and 10^33 inducing points.

We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modelling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensonal GP models in O(n) time and memory complexity. While existing literature has focused on the connection between GP regression and state space methods, the computational primitives allowing for inference using general likelihoods in combination with the Laplace approximation (LA), variational Bayes (VB), and assumed density filtering (ADF) / expectation propagation (EP) schemes has been largely overlooked. We present means of combining the efficient O(n) state space methodology with existing inference methods. We also furher extend existing methods, and provide unifying code implementing all approaches.

One of the most compelling features of Gaussian process (GP) regression is its ability to provide well-calibrated posterior distributions. Recent advances in inducing point methods have sped up GP marginal likelihood and posterior mean computations, leaving posterior covariance estimation and sampling as the remaining computational bottlenecks. In this paper we address these shortcomings by using the Lanczos algorithm to rapidly approximate the predictive covariance matrix. Our approach, which we refer to as LOVE (LanczOs Variance Estimates), substantially improves time and space complexity. In our experiments, LOVE computes covariances up to 2,000 times faster and draws samples 18,000 times faster than existing methods, all without sacrificing accuracy.

Gaussian process modulated Poisson processes provide a flexible framework for modeling spatiotemporal point patterns. So far this had been restricted to one dimension, binning to a pre-determined grid, or small data sets of up to a few thousand data points. Here we introduce Cox process inference based on Fourier features. This sparse representation induces global rather than local constraints on the function space and is computationally efficient. This allows us to formulate a grid-free approximation that scales well with the number of data points and the size of the domain. We demonstrate that this allows MCMC approximations to the non-Gaussian posterior. In practice, we find that Fourier features have more consistent optimization behavior than previous approaches. Our approximate Bayesian method can fit over 100 000 events with complex spatiotemporal patterns in three dimensions on a single GPU.