A parametric point process model is developed, with modeling based on the assumption that sequential observations often share latent phenomena, while also possessing idiosyncratic effects. An alternating optimization method is proposed to learn a registered'' point process that accounts for shared structure, as well aswarping'' functions that characterize idiosyncratic aspects of each observed sequence. Under reasonable constraints, in each iteration we update the sample-specific warping functions by solving a set of constrained nonlinear programming problems in parallel, and update the model by maximum likelihood estimation. The justifiability, complexity and robustness of the proposed method are investigated in detail, and the influence of sequence stitching on the learning results is examined empirically.Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that the method yields explainable point process models, achieving encouraging results compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Time-series data often exhibit irregular behavior, making them hard to analyze and explain with a simple dynamic model. For example, information in social networks may show change-point-like bursts that then diffuse with smooth dynamics. Powerful models such as deep neural networks learn smooth functions from data, but are not as well-suited (in off-the-shelf form) for discovering and explaining sparse, discrete and bursty dynamic patterns. Bayesian models can do this well by encoding the appropriate probabilistic assumptions in the model prior. We propose an integration of Bayesian nonparametric methods within deep neural networks for modeling irregular patterns in time-series data. We use a Bayesian nonparametrics to model change-point behavior in time, and a deep neural network to model nonlinear latent space dynamics. We compare with a non-deep linear version of the model also proposed here. Empirical evaluations demonstrates improved performance and interpretable results when tracking stock prices and Twitter trends.

We present a new algorithm for identifying the transition and emission probabilities of a hidden Markov model (HMM) from the emitted data. Expectation-maximization becomes computationally prohibitive for long observation records, which are often required for identification. The new algorithm is particularly suitable for cases where the available sample size is large enough to accurately estimate second-order output probabilities, but not higher-order ones. We show that if one is only able to obtain a reliable estimate of the pairwise co-occurrence probabilities of the emissions, it is still possible to uniquely identify the HMM if the emission probability is \emph{sufficiently scattered}. We apply our method to hidden topic Markov modeling, and demonstrate that we can learn topics with higher quality if documents are modeled as observations of HMMs sharing the same emission (topic) probability, compared to the simple but widely used bag-of-words model.