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Volatility Based Kernels and Moving Average Means for Accurate Forecasting with Gaussian Processes
Gregory Benton · Wesley Maddox · Andrew Wilson

Tue Jul 19 10:45 AM -- 10:50 AM (PDT) @ Room 307
in PM: Gaussian Processes »

A broad class of stochastic volatility models are defined by systems of stochastic differential equations, and while these models have seen widespread success in domains such as finance and statistical climatology, they typically lack an ability to condition on historical data to produce a true posterior distribution. To address this fundamental limitation, we show how to re-cast a class of stochastic volatility models as a hierarchical Gaussian process (GP) model with specialized covariance functions. This GP model retains the inductive biases of the stochastic volatility model while providing the posterior predictive distribution given by GP inference. Within this framework, we take inspiration from well studied domains to introduce a new class of models, Volt and Magpie, that significantly outperform baselines in stock and wind speed forecasting, and naturally extend to the multitask setting.

Keywords: APP: Time Series · PM: Gaussian Processes

Author Information

Gregory Benton (New York University)
Wesley Maddox (New York University)
Andrew Wilson (New York University)
Andrew Wilson

Andrew Gordon Wilson is faculty in the Courant Institute and Center for Data Science at NYU. His interests include probabilistic modelling, Gaussian processes, Bayesian statistics, physics inspired machine learning, and loss surfaces and generalization in deep learning. His webpage is https://cims.nyu.edu/~andrewgw.

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