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Necessary and sufficient conditions for causal feature selection in time series with latent common causes
Atalanti Mastakouri · Bernhard Schölkopf · Dominik Janzing

Wed Jul 21 07:25 AM -- 07:30 AM (PDT) @
in Time Series 1 »

We study the identification of direct and indirect causes on time series with latent variables, and provide a constrained-based causal feature selection method, which we prove that is both sound and complete under some graph constraints. Our theory and estimation algorithm require only two conditional independence tests for each observed candidate time series to determine whether or not it is a cause of an observed target time series. Furthermore, our selection of the conditioning set is such that it improves signal to noise ratio. We apply our method on real data, and on a wide range of simulated experiments, which yield very low false positive and relatively low false negative rates.

Keywords: Causal Inference

Author Information

Atalanti Mastakouri (Amazon Research Tuebingen)
Bernhard Schölkopf (MPI for Intelligent Systems Tübingen, Germany)

Bernhard Scholkopf received degrees in mathematics (London) and physics (Tubingen), and a doctorate in computer science from the Technical University Berlin. He has researched at AT&T Bell Labs, at GMD FIRST, Berlin, at the Australian National University, Canberra, and at Microsoft Research Cambridge (UK). In 2001, he was appointed scientific member of the Max Planck Society and director at the MPI for Biological Cybernetics; in 2010 he founded the Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems. For further information, see www.kyb.tuebingen.mpg.de/~bs.

Dominik Janzing (Amazon)

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