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Evaluating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties of time series deep learning models for soil moisture predictions
Chaopeng Shen

Fri Jun 14 02:40 PM -- 02:50 PM (PDT) @

Soil moisture is an important variable that determines floods, vegetation health, agriculture productivity, and land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere, etc. Accurately modeling soil moisture has important implications in both weather and climate models. The recently available satellite-based observations give us a unique opportunity to build data-driven models to predict soil moisture instead of using land surface models, but previously there was no uncertainty estimate. We tested Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) with an aleatoric term for our long short-term memory models for this problem, and asked if the uncertainty terms behave as they were argued to. We show that the method successfully captures the predictive error after tuning a hyperparameter on a representative training dataset. We show the MCD uncertainty estimate, as previously argued, does detect dissimilarity. In this talk, several important challenges with climate modeling where machine learning may help are also introduced to open up a discussion.

Author Information

Chaopeng Shen (Pennsylvania State University)

Solving water resources and climate resilience problem with AI and process based models. Study streams, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.

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    Abraham Stanway · Alex Robson · Aneesh Rangnekar · Ashesh Chattopadhyay · Ashley Pilipiszyn · Benjamin LeRoy · Bolong Cheng · Ce Zhang · Chaopeng Shen · Christian Schroeder · Christian Clough · Clement DUHART · Clement Fung · Cozmin Ududec · Dali Wang · David Dao · di wu · Dimitrios Giannakis · Dino Sejdinovic · Doina Precup · Duncan Watson-Parris · Gege Wen · George Chen · Gopal Erinjippurath · Haifeng Li · Han Zou · Herke van Hoof · Hillary A Scannell · Hiroshi Mamitsuka · Hongbao Zhang · Jaegul Choo · James Wang · James Requeima · Jessica Hwang · Jinfan Xu · Johan Mathe · Jonathan Binas · Joonseok Lee · Kalai Ramea · Kate Duffy · Kevin McCloskey · Kris Sankaran · Lester Mackey · Letif Mones · Loubna Benabbou · Lynn Kaack · Matthew Hoffman · Mayur Mudigonda · Mehrdad Mahdavi · Michael McCourt · Mingchao Jiang · Mohammad Mahdi Kamani · Neel Guha · Niccolo Dalmasso · Nick Pawlowski · Nikola Milojevic-Dupont · Paulo Orenstein · Pedram Hassanzadeh · Pekka Marttinen · Ramesh Nair · Sadegh Farhang · Samuel Kaski · Sandeep Manjanna · Sasha Luccioni · Shuby Deshpande · Soo Kim · Soukayna Mouatadid · Sunghyun Park · Tao Lin · Telmo Felgueira · Thomas Hornigold · Tianle Yuan · Tom Beucler · Tracy Cui · Volodymyr Kuleshov · Wei Yu · yang song · Ydo Wexler · Yoshua Bengio · Zhecheng Wang · Zhuangfang Yi · Zouheir Malki