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On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks
Chuan Guo · Geoff Pleiss · Yu Sun · Kilian Weinberger

Mon Aug 07 11:42 PM -- 12:00 AM (PDT) @ Darling Harbour Theatre

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Author Information

Chuan Guo (Cornell University)
Geoff Pleiss (Cornell University)
Yu Sun (Cornell University)
Kilian Weinberger (Cornell University)

Kilian Weinberger is an Associate Professor in the Department of Computer Science at Cornell University. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania in Machine Learning under the supervision of Lawrence Saul and his undergraduate degree in Mathematics and Computer Science from the University of Oxford. During his career he has won several best paper awards at ICML, CVPR, AISTATS and KDD (runner-up award). In 2011 he was awarded the Outstanding AAAI Senior Program Chair Award and in 2012 he received an NSF CAREER award. He was elected co-Program Chair for ICML 2016 and for AAAI 2018. Kilian Weinberger's research focuses on Machine Learning and its applications. In particular, he focuses on learning under resource constraints, metric learning, machine learned web-search ranking, computer vision and deep learning. Before joining Cornell University, he was an Associate Professor at Washington University in St. Louis and before that he worked as a research scientist at Yahoo! Research in Santa Clara.

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